Steady economy growth is possible only after allocating a clear objective and building macroeconomic development model. Acquiring of accurate prognoses of future development is the primary objective of applying macroeconomic models. Before VAR methods emerged prognosis were made based on timeline of economic indicators that were acquired through singular spectrum prognosis methods and extrapolation. Applying SSA methods implied that an indicator under research was formed under the influence of a multitude of factors that were impossible to separate. In this case, indicator changes were connected with the time flow rather than with the influencing factors, which led to the creation of singular time series. Authors prove that Ukrainian economy faced steady developing as well shocks. That is why using simple regressions for prognosis of macroeconomic indicators is not sufficient. VAR models not only enable the accurate forecasting of macroeconomic indicators but also are very useful when building models of stress-testing of the economy and banks in case of external and internal shocks. Preventing the negative effects can be effective using a model of macroeconomic risk management that enables managing exogenous macroeconomic factors in order to attain the well-defined objectives.

In this paper, authors present the dynamics analysis of yearly changes of the gross domestic product, consumer price level, USD/UAH exchange rate, M2 money supply indicator, assets and liabilities of the Ukrainian banks dynamics, Ukrainian deposits, banks capital dynamics.

macroeconomic model, VAR model, macroeconomic risks, timeline, inflation rate, money supply, gross domestic product.